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| Bruce Ivins |
[Cross-posted at Firedoglake.]
I hope everyone watching the anthrax/Bruce Ivins case has been
reading Marcy’s stellar work, particularly her delving of the Justice
Department’s selective document dump yesterday (see especially her
wrapup on the documents and
the timeline she constructed, as well as
this morning’s note). The bottom line: "they haven’t solved this crime, but they want us to all go away and pretend they have."
Some of the evidence presented is fairly damning, to be sure. There’s a big red flag in the middle
this affidavit:
Ivins gave the FBI false anthrax samples during their investigation of
the mailings in April 2002. What’s particularly noteworthy is that he
appeared to be hiding the fact that his lab samples (which he originally
did not hand over) matched the samples in the mailings.
Besides being extraordinarily suspicious behavior (Ivins’
explanations were far from convincing) this sort of non-cooperation is
also obstruction of justice. And that, no doubt, was a club the FBI
began holding over his head to get his cooperation in the years that
followed.
It’s also worth noting that this event happened only days before
Ivins was involved in discovering an anthrax leak at the lab, an event
that set off a panic within Fort Detrick. (The Frederick News Post
published
an excellent series describing this event.)
At the same time, you have to be struck by some of the FBI’s behavior
that emerges from these papers as well as other documents. The
Washington Post story
following the dump covers this well: It really was an extraordinary
pattern of constant harassment, including showing up at a supermarket
with autopsy photos to tell Ivins’ wife that he had killed those people.
I’ve been around federal law enforcement for a long time, and agents
almost never engage in tactics like that unless they are dead certain
they have their man and are trying to shake him into a misstep. Problem
is, I’ve also seen agents be wrong about that.
What stands out in these documents is what we’ve gotten so far from
the leaks (almost certainly coming from an investigator) that have fed
us most of the public information about the case against Ivins: Namely,
there are tons of cause for suspicion, and even a reasonable
circumstantial case to make against Ivins, but it’s a dubious
proposition at best that this evidence would have yielded a conviction —
it’s more likely, in fact, that it wouldn’t have.
Indeed, it’s likely that Ivins would still be alive if their case
against him had been stronger. After all, they could easily have taken
him into custody after his release from the hospital where he was
treated just before his suicide — but probably didn’t because their case
was so weak and they feared it would be dismissed outright if they
grabbed him.
What the public has to work on so far are affidavits for search
warrants — which are fine for establishing probable cause, but don’t do
diddly for establishing actual guilt. They may have gotten a good crack
on the case, but the FBI is far from having solved it.
Indeed, the affidavit contains several inconsistencies. One of the
key pieces of evidence it raises is his mysterious late-night work
around the time of the attacks, emphasizing his refusal to explain what
he was working on. Yet a later section quotes an e-mail showing showing
that Ivins resumed work on a vaccine project at this time. And the
“unusual” pattern of night work is clearly shown to have begun in
August, well before the Al Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington,
D.C. — meaning if Ivins was working on the attacks then, he conceived
them before 9/11. And yet whoever was responsible for the attacks was
clearly piggybacking off them (see the phony "Muslim" content of the
letters).
This incoherency is also evident in the concluding final section,
which makes clear that investigators are continuing to look outside of
Fort Detrick for the location and the equipment used in making the
anthrax and the letters. (It also makes it unlikely that the lyopholizer
used in making the anthrax was the one recently linked to Ivins in news
reports based on the leaks.)
Even if Ivins can be linked with hard evidence, the case still has
many unresolved issues, particularly whether Ivins had any
co-conspirators (the affidavits even indicate this was a possibility).
And then there are the larger issues about what was happening at Fort
Detrick — why security was so lax, and whether the facility was
violating the international bioweapons convention if it was making this
anthrax.
But it’s clear the Justice Department wants to walk away from this
case — and with someone linked closely to Scooter "Germ Boy" Libby
calling the shots, that seems increasingly likely. Hopefully, Congress
will have something to say about that.
[Thanks to Warbaby for the links and pointers.]