A little white rice -- and a black bean

My friend Dan Junas, the semi-retired political researcher/analyst, sends a missive regarding my earlier post about Bush's declining polls. He points out that I referred to Bush's "approval ratings" when the poll I cited actually was about Bush's re-elect numbers. As Dan says:

It's an important distinction, because in wartime (or post 9/11) a respondent is more likely to support the President, but that does not necessarily translate into a vote. When I see polls that reflect Bush's approval rating, I find myself asking, "What's his re-elect number?" because I see that as a more accurate gauge of genuine political support. The political consultant's rule of thumb is that when a candidate's re-elect number drops below 50%, he's in trouble.

The point is, Bush is doing much worse politically than pundits are acknowledging. An unbiased press (as if!) would report that he is in deep political trouble.

He is getting relatively high approval ratings because he is commander-in-chief. But we know his approval ratings on economic issues are low, and the low re-elect number indicates to me that voters (who are much more important than people who simply answer polling questions) are giving more weight to economic issues. That's an underlying dynamic that is not going away for W.

Americans also have serious problems with a war that does not meet with international approval. Politically speaking, going without U.N. approval risks stirring quite a backlash. If the war is short and (from the U.S. point of view) sweet, W's ratings may get a bump. But Paul [de Armond, a mutual friend and another political analyst] told me he saw polling that indicates that if occupation is to last more than three months (the Administration is admitting it may take up to two years), support drops off the cliff. So whether or not W. gets the international approval that he needs to avoid backlash, the long occupation creates another underlying dynamic -- like the economy, which in turn would be drained by the cost of the occupation -- that undercuts W.'s political position.

Even guarding against wishful thinking, I'd say Bush is in a very perilous political position. Especially when you also consider the political risk of backing down.

Of course, as the Mexicans say, there is always a black bean in the white rice, and in this case it's the pathetic state of the Democrats that keeps me from betting my retirement account on a Bush defeat in '04.

Well, I'll take another few helpings of that white rice anyway.