Tuesday, January 20, 2004

The only option

I normally avoid doing the reciprocal-link thing, but I have to mention that Patrick Nielsen Hayden has been blogging much along the same lines lately regarding the absolute imperative that the Democratic Party faces this coming year in removing George W. Bush from office.

Patrick makes his core point in this post, commenting on the outcome in Iowa:
I just want a Democratic candidate who knows in his gut that the Bush Administration is a national crisis that has got to be stopped. If Kerry or Edwards turns out to be that guy, I?ll be happy to work for them. If Dean recovers from this, or if Clark manages to thread his way to the front of the pack, I?ll be on their side too.

He also cites Josh Marshall's reiteration of this point: "What people care about is who can beat Bush. Beat Bush, they reason, and everything else will fall into place. So who cares what your plan is."

In this post, Patrick points to the conclusion that every candidate for the presidency must reach: "A lot of people are passionately convinced of the need to defeat Bush, and are ready to join any plausible crusade to do so. But effective politics often entails more than simply crushing the opposition with the splendidness of your rectitude."

And he's also linked to Robert Kuttner's important piece on "America as a One Party State," which is indeed an essential read.

All in all, these are some of the reasons Patrick's blog is one I check daily.

While I'm on the subject of the way the Bush administration's policies directly impact our lives (and the crisis his regime represents), I should also point to Billmon's great post from earlier this month on deflation (which he also updated recently). The money grafs:
The $10 trillion question, though, hasn't changed: Will the existing slack in the economy -- in both employment and capacity -- be reeled in quickly enough to reverse the underlying trend of disinflation before it develops into outright price deflation?

If the answer is yes, then the Fed should be able to breath easier, the expansion should continue and broaden, the unemployment rate should gradually fall, and the Bush machine should be able to turn its attentions to planning whatever new atrocities it has in store for Shrub's second term. If the answer is no, however, the American economy is about to explore territory it hasn't visited in almost seven decades.

Deflation is such rarity -- at least in the modern era, and at least here in the United States -- that it has to be regarded as the ultimate economic wild card. It's possible to paint a picture in which falling prices are offset by strong productivity growth and the increased purchasing power of deflated dollars. This might allow the economy to continue to grow, despite falling prices. But it's also possible to imagine a scenario in which deflation wreaks havoc with corporate profits and knocks the props out from under overly leveraged American balance sheets, causing the expansion to self-destruct.

Go read the whole thing. Billmon is a terrific writer, of course, and worth checking daily too.

Finally, be sure to check out Fred Henning's excellent post along these lines over at American Street, too.

No comments: